Monday, October 5, 2009

Business Plans are Always Wrong

Seth Godin includes venture competitions to his Pundits are (nearly) always wrong post yesterday.

I say take that a step further: business plans are always wrong. I have to say I like how well this ties into his post on Starbucks from a couple days earlier.

That’s because we’re human. Business plans predict the future. We humans suck at predicting the future. Istock_000000549056small_2

Paradox: nonetheless, planning is vital. Planning means starting with the plan and then tracking, reviewing progress, watching plan vs. actual results, correcting the course without losing sight of the long-term destination.

Planning is a process, like walking or steering, that involves constant corrections.

  • The plan sets a marker. Without it we can’t track how we were wrong, in what direction, and when, and with what assumptions.
  • Use this marker to manage the constant conflict between short-term problems and long-term goals. You don’t just implement a plan, no matter what. You work that plan. Use it to maintain your vision of progress towards the horizon, while dealing with the everyday problems, putting out fires.
  • So the plan may be wrong, but the planning process is vital.

The truth is that forecasting is hard. Nobody likes forecasting. But Istock_000000408066smallone thing harder than forecasting is trying to run a business without a forecast.

A business plan is normally full of holes, but you fill them, after the fact, with the management that follows. That’s what turns planning into management.

Good planning is nine parts implementation for every one part strategy.

– Tim

http://timberry.bplans.com/2007/05/business_plans_.html


Ideas vs. Opportunities

Ideas are a dime a dozen. Opportunities are much more important. An opportunity is an idea that’s passed the test of planning. It has potential. You can implement it. An opportunity has some of the following elements:

  • Industry and market potential: look at market structure, industry structure, growth rate, margins, costs, etc.
  • Economics: capital requirements, fixed costs, cash flow, return on investment, risk.
  • Competitive advantage: degree of control, barriers to entry, availability of sufficient resources.
  • Management team: people who know the industry, the market, the operations, the logistics, the road to market. filter_istock_small

The business planning process is about filtering the opportunities — a precious few, requiring focus, and planning — from the ideas.

Whether you’re working on a new start-up business or growing an existing business, you need to encourage lots of ideas and then use your planning to filter them down into the real opportunities.

Remember displacement … recognize that you can’t do everything. You want your plan to help you focus in on the best opportunities among your longer list of ideas.

There is no external meter of good and bad opportunities. What you’re looking for is the right mix between business potential and your ability to reach that potential, given your position, core competence, strengths, weaknesses, and resources.

– Tim




http://timberry.bplans.com/2007/07/ideas-vs-opport.html


Where to Focus: Passion or Ability?

I just answered this question for the entrepreneur.com website, and I’m intrigued with the question itself, I wonder what you think is a good answer.

Here’s the question (and let me say that the IP here belongs to entrepreneur.com, not to me, and I thank them for allowing this here) …

"When starting a business should you focus more on what you love or what you are good at? I’ve started two moderately successful advertising companies with revenues of more than $250,000 in the past two years. However, I don’t necessarily "love" advertising sales, I’m just pretty good at it. In the articles I read month after month, the truly successful people are doing what they love and doing the thing they would do even if they didn’t need the money. That is where I feel my career track is off. If I ever made enough money, I would never, never sell another advertiser again! This makes me think that I should dig deep and find the thing that will get me out of bed at 5 a.m. every morning excited to start working. So my question is even though I’m good at sales and advertising, should I stick with it or find something that I’m passionate about? What’s more important–passion or ability?"

What do you think is the right answer? Focus on what you love or what you’re good at? I’d love to hear from you with this one. I think it’s a very interesting question. I was taken aback, because I’m afraid I’ve always assumed what you love is going to be what you’re good at, and this example seems to pose a different picture quite well.

For the record, here is my answer to that person:

Great question. I think I’ve always assumed a connection between what you like and what you’re good at, but you have a good example here too.

You don’t say what you do love to do. That matters in this case, doesn’t it? Is what you love a business possibility? If you love carpentry or business planning or cooking Mediterranean cuisine that’s one thing, and if you love long walks on the beach or playing golf that’s another. Although even there, people teach golf and start golf equipment shops, but you get what I mean.

Don’t you like anything related to the advertising business? If you started these two businesses, do you have to be the one to do the selling? What about maybe doing the creative or the accounting or some other part of an advertising business, some part that you do love?

Everybody should be able to do what they love and get paid, but it doesn’t seem to work out that way. There are only so many writers, artists, dancers, actors, and athletes with jobs. Then there are the teachers of writing, dancing, and acting, the coaches, and others who build businesses around what they love. And there are websites around what people like to do, and some of them make money.

So I apologize for not having a more definite answer. Thanks, you made me think about these things.

So that’s what I answered, and I’m anxious to broaden this discussion. What do you think? Passion or ability? I hope you’ll add a comment here.

– Tim

http://timberry.bplans.com/2007/08/where-to-focus-.html


But Can We Trust the Trust Agents?

I was just getting back to the office yesterday, a Monday morning after a week away – 4 days of business, and 3 relaxing and invigorating days in Yosemite, which is really away — when Dan Levine (@schoolmarketer on Twitter) suggested I read The social media country club on Mark Shaeffer’s businessgrow blog.

Yes, I’m a sucker for contrary points of view. Get a group going, approach consensus, and I want to read the one who’s out in left field. If everybody else is right and this one’s all wrong, so what, I can work that out. But then how often is left field the right place to be?

Mark starts out objecting to rave reviews of Trust Agents, the book by Chris Brogan and Julien Smith. It’s subtitle is “Using the Web to Build Influence, Improve Reputation, and Earn Trust.” I haven’t read it, but I’ve read a lot of favorable comments. Mark, however, says those favorable comments are the result of group think and myth making:

The “thought leaders” of social media marketing are a country club fearful of saying anything negative or controversial about another club member. The real commerce of social media is trading favors and a negative comment breaks the favor chain.

He paints a picture a lot like the fable of the emperor’s new clothes. You can see with this quote, under the general heading of credibility, that at the very least he’s making his position clear:

Take a close look at the credentials (if you can find any) of nearly any leading social media marketing “expert.” How many have ever had a real sales job or have been actually accountable for delivering new value in a marketplace by creating, testing and distributing a product on a meaningful scale? Very few. Yet these are our marketing “gurus?” In a communication channel already dominated by porn-peddling, get-rich-quick nimrods, it simply doesn’t help our collective credibility to have our most visible advocates spouting incredibly naive statements about marketing fundamentals they know little about.

I don’t know that I agree; it seems too harsh to me. I don’t think expertise is measured only by job history, or sales history, or middle management in a big company history, which seems to be laying just under the surface of the blogger bashing. And I wish Mark had said which statements in the book are naive. But it’s certainly a very contrarian point of view. And worth considering. So I’m sharing it here.

(Photo credit: STILLFX/Shutterstock)

http://timberry.bplans.com/2009/09/can-we-trust-the-trust-agents.html


10 Traits of Successful Entrepreneurs

It started as a comment at the bottom of my 10 signs you're probably an entrepreneur post on this blog, a few days ago. What are the traits of successful entrepreneurs?

I was quoting a Twitter friend, Andrew Patricio. I hope you saw that list. I identified easily. But I can't help thinking about that comment left by Robert Hacker:

Next post should be a list of the characteristics of successful entrepreneurs :) If you do not write it I will.

That's quite a challenge. What, besides the obvious, do successful entrepreneurs have in common? I know I'm not sure. But at least I can get the idea started. Maybe you can help. What am I missing?

  1. There's a lot of talk about P-words: passion, perseverance, and persistence. I mistrust all three. A lot of unsuccessful entrepreneurs have them just as much. You have to have some variation on these traits, but you can have all three and still fail. You and I both know people who never made it and never stopped trying. My favorite P-word in entrepreneurship is planning, but that's just me. Stubbornness is good too, even without starting with P.
  2. I like empathy, as in understanding how other people think and feel about things. Empathy leads to understanding what the people you sell to want, what they need, how they think, and how to best reach them. It's hard to imagine somebody building a company without being able to put themselves in the buyer's state of mind.
  3. A sense of fairness. For dealing with vendors, customers, and employees.
  4. Transferable values. This is closely related to the sense of fairness. I just don't see people building businesses without believing in what they're doing.
  5. Willingness to work hard, shoulder to shoulder with other people. Cliche, but true: the harder I work, the luckier I get.
  6. Knowing what they don't know. To me that's much more important than what you do know.
  7. Listening carefully. Shutting up.
  8. Vision for what they can build. Imagining a happy future. Dreaming.
  9. Making mistakes. You have to deal with failure. Keep pitching.
  10. Jumping viewpoints, like from short- to long-term in an instant, mixing those viewpoints together. That's like dribbling, keeping your eyes up while managing the ball at your feet.

So there's 10. Everybody likes lists of 10. Go ahead. Add some more. Make my day.


http://timberry.bplans.com/2009/01/10-traits-of-successful-entrepreneurs.html


Planning is Stories

There can be great truth in stories. People have communicated in stories from the very beginning. We use stories to tell about God, family, each other, and business. Stories can be true or false by the message they carry, not just what happens in the story. Fables, parables, short stories … think about how much you learn, and teach, with stories.

Can a story tell truth without being technically factual? I think we all know it can. Is the lesson of sour grapes less true because there was no original fox? Or is the story of the gingerbread man not true?

Marketing is all about stories. (Aside — great book in this area, All Marketers are Liars, by Seth Godin). There’s the story of how it started, the invention of whatever it is you’re selling, or the invention of your business itself, the story of the brand, the packaging, the formula, or whatever. There’s the story of how the customer finds the solution. There’s the story of how the customer problem is solved.

A good business plan is a collection of stories. Your vision is a story about the future. Even financial projections are stories, told in numbers. If we sell this many units at that price, we have this much in sales; but we also have to spend this much in rent, and so on.

As a frequent reader of business plans, I look for the stories. The most important is the story of the customer, the solution to a problem, the path to find it, and the decision to buy. I also look for the story of the startup, and the story of the growth in the future. I want them to be convincing.

(Photo credit: Pixelbliss/Shutterstock)

http://timberry.bplans.com/2009/09/planning-is-stories.html


Three Simple but Powerful Rules for Negotiation

Seems like negotiation week for me. I published this post about Seth Godin’s take on business development, and then another on how win-win is the only win in business negotiations. That leaves me thinking about negotiations I’ve been involved in, things that have worked, and things that haven’t worked. And I end up wanting to post the three rules here, because it seems like they always work.

Disclosure: I’ve never taken a negotiation course; not the ones they advertise in magazines, and not one in business school either. These rules are things I learned the hard way.

1. How does it feel to be them?

Call it empathy. “Walk a mile in their shoes” is a good old-fashioned saying. I know a lady who would say “see it through my eyes.” There’s no substitute for understanding the other side of the negotiation. What are they thinking? And, by far the most important, what do they want?

2. Find the win-win

There are no zero-sum games in long-term business deals. You have two winners or two losers, never just one winner and one loser. Sure, you might be able to get that kind of a victory (we win, you lose) in a negotiation sometimes, if you make that a goal … but that won’t last. Businesses wise up. Relationships that aren’t good for both sides don’t last.

So look for that in every negotiation. How can they get what they want, and you get what you want? Maybe both sides get slightly less, but both win. That’s the goal.

3. Negotiate before the contract, not with the contract

The most common mistake in negotiation is dealing with the legal contract. First, you have to realize that only a tiny minority of legal contracts ever determine anything. You have to sue for breach of contract to make a contract really matter, and if it comes to that, you already have a disaster. The vast majority of disputes are dealt with by discussion, revision, and, for the really hard ones, mediation.

I’m not an attorney, so don’t take this as legal advice. In practical experience, though, what I’ve seen that works is that you get all your terms straight first in simple memos (yes, definitely, written; just not legalese) and then do the contract. The contract is the last step.

(Photo credit: Dmitriy Shironosov/Shutterstock)

http://timberry.bplans.com/2009/09/three-simple-but-powerful-rules-for-negotiation.html

Planning is not Accounting

The picture here represents the legendary Stargate, a science fictional gateway between two dimensions. There was a 1994 film starring James Spader and Kurt Russell.

I often use it to illustrate the difference between planning and accounting. Planning begins today and goes forward into the future. Accounting ends today and goes backward into the past. Planning is for making decisions, setting priorities, and management. Accounting is also for information and management, of course, but there are legal obligations related to taxes. Accounting must necessarily go very deep into detail. Planning requires a balance between detail and concept, because there are times when too much detail is not productive.

The catch that causes many misunderstandings is that the statements look very similar. Your accounting system produces an Income statement (alias Profit or Loss), a Balance Sheet, and a Cash Flow statement. A good business plan has at least the same three statements as "pro-forma" (meaning projected) statements. The form, presentation, and order of appearance of these financial statements are almost identical, but their information content is quite different.

Accounting should zoom into ever-increasing detail. Planning should summarize and aggregate.

Accounting can never be wrong. Business plans are always wrong (not that they aren’t useful — it’s like walking or steering, the value is in the correction and the management of where and why they’re wrong, but that’s a different post.)

-Tim Berry-



http://timberry.bplans.com/2006/02/planning_is_not.html

Zen and Business Planning

They seem like opposites. Zen’s about mindful acceptance of the present moment. Planning is about managing the future. Seems like Zen business planning is oxymoronic. I hope not.

Why do you care? Maybe because real business planning aligns your business with your self and the world around you. Maybe as a response to business plan bashing, which happens when people confuse the plan (ugh, big document, hard, formal, not necessary) with planning (focus, prioritizing, envisioning the future, setting directions, dealing with change, managing).

Why do I care? I respect Zen. Maybe it’s the coolness factor, as I posted recently, Zen and the Art of Copying. Guy Kawasaki has a good post called the Zen of Business Planning. Maybe it’s Gil Fronsdal, and his zencast.org podcasts, to which I listen frequently.

Maybe it’s my new book, The Plan-As-You-Go Business Plan, which deals with (among other things) some Zen-like contradictions and paradox in real business planning. Your business plan is always wrong, but vital. A good business plan is never done. Consistency is critical except when it isn’t. Plan for change. Do what you use, do what you need, no more. The plan is what you want to happen, not the document, not the presentation. And so forth.

So, reflecting on Zen and Business Planning, I suggest four key points:

  1. Accept change as constant. The value of the plan isn’t mindless implementation in a guessed-at future. The value of the plan is the planning process, the management of change it creates. Planning enhances vision and understanding of past, present, and future.
  2. Use planning to remain mindful of which direction you want to move. Towards which horizon. Stay mindful of your own definition of success.
  3. Understand how, as you move through business time, where you are is always different from where you thought you’d be. You do that by leaving tracks (the plan) which you can use to trace changed assumptions (plan vs. actual).
  4. Correct your course as your assumptions change, remaining mindful of long-term direction and short-term necessity.


http://timberry.bplans.com/2008/06/zen-and-busines.html

Success vs. doing what you like vs. people vs. community.

Did I miss something critical here? The chart at right is from my Choose your own world view post on here Tuesday. I was trying to relate choices to results and highlight tradeoffs; but I wasn’t sure whether these three factors pulled away from each other, or did they in fact work together if you find the sweet spot in the middle.

In a thoughtful email later that day, Kate Putnam said I missed something critical:

Work you like should lead to business success (however you define that). The third piece should be what you give back to your community.

I asked her permission (I think it’s rude not to, with an email) to publish her comments here. She explained:

You are not teaching your children much if you don’t do that. You are not sharing the fruits of your success if you don’t do that. Plus, if you do it right, you meet new friends who share your values and whom you would not stumble across in your regular day-to-day existence. I have learned a lot for my business from my non-profit board work and the people I met through it.

Good point, Kate. Here’s a revised version to the right. It adds community as a fourth leaf.

And the question remains: do these factors pull apart, from center outwards? Or do they come together in the middle. I can argue that either way. I think it depends on your world view, your experience, and choices you make.

Kate added this as well:

I tell my children that “to whom much is given, much is expected.”

After reading that email, I also wandered off to her website, and found her business called Package Machinery, focusing on sustainable practices in packaging. And Kate is on Twitter as wrapsustainably. So I like discovering that she is obviously not just saying it, or writing it in email; she’s doing it too. That makes her comments that much more interesting.



http://timberry.bplans.com/2009/10/success-vs-doing-what-you-like-vs-people-vs-community.html

Boomer Business Blogger Part 3: Is It Good Business?

A nice person almost apologized to me for not having her business on Facebook. I said: “but why?”

Blogs, Twitter, Facebook, and all the rest of that “social media stuff” may or may not be good business. But not just for its own sake. It has to be part of a strategy.

Otherwise, it may or may not be fun, depending on who you are and what you like to do; but it’s not good business without a related plan for how it’s supposed to help. Does it generate leads? Page views? Validation? Or is it just a rationalization for spending time doing something you like, like keeping up with friends, being clever.

My blogging has a business strategy. I don’t sell anything, but I do talk about business planning and business management. It relates to my books, my software authorship, and the company I founded. It generates page views in the Bplans.com domain. It validates.

So it’s fun, but it’s good business too. In this case, at least. It relates directly to validation of product, to page views, and to marketing objectives.

What is it for you? What’s the business objective? How to you measure achievement of that objective? Do you have metrics to review? Do you remember to review them?




http://timberry.bplans.com/2009/05/boomer-business-blogger-part-3-is-it-good-business.html


Are You a Good Manager? How Can You Tell?

What makes a good manager? Is it something you’re born with, or something you learn? Is there management instinct? I don’t know for sure. I’ve been in business for more than 30 years now, and I still don’t know.

A few years ago I was trapped on a plane with nothing to read but The One-Minute Manager, by Kenneth Blanchard and Spencer Johnson. It was written in 1982, and still sells very well today, according to Amazon.com ranking, even 26 years later. It’s in the top 2,000 books.

It was a short plane trip, and an easy book to read. It seemed about like this:

Make expectations specific. Tell people what’s expected. Follow up. Track results. Tell people afterwards how they did.

Several things struck me about that:

  1. Completely obvious, but
  2. still very valuable.
  3. Some things that seem completely obvious, once said (or written) still needed to be said (or written).
  4. Authors deserve special credit for keeping a simple book short. This one was easy to read in a one-hour flight.

I’ve never been much of a manager myself. That’s no big deal, of course; lots of people aren’t managers. In my case, though, people expected me to be, because I’ve had a lifetime of successful entrepreneurship. But entrepreneurship and management are different things.

I don’t think I’m alone. I’ve just been browsing the Amazon.com site. Small and simple books like that one sell lots of copies to lots of people. Who Moved My Cheese?, another that fits that description, sells phenomenally well. It’s in the top 300 at Amazon.com

What makes a good manager? Is it confidence, relative certainty, good communications skills, comfort with authority? I just read How to Be a Great Boss on a blog ironically named “Dumb Little Man.” And it’s a good list, too, but not surprising. Standard stuff: listen, communicate, say “Thank You.” And this one: bring food and arrange treats. What is this, kids’ soccer?

Thinking about it, I want to ask the experts some questions back: what makes a good manager?

  1. Is it getting things done?
  2. Getting other people to get things done?
  3. Is it doing the company’s bidding?
  4. Being well liked?
  5. Advancing your own career?
  6. Inspiring people, or leading them?
  7. Coordinating a team?
  8. Is a good manager able to do the work instead?
  9. Do you have to know how to code to manage programmers?

And some really fundamental questions: is a good manager liked, hated, respected, feared, or all or none of these? Is it possible to lead people to higher productivity and the greater good of the business while being disliked? Is it possible to do that while being universally liked? Does a good manager have friends, allies, enemies, bosses, underlings, followers, or minions?

Is it about carrots and sticks, or both?



http://timberry.bplans.com/2009/08/are-you-a-good-manager-how-can-you-tell.html

Confessions of a Hypocritical Business Planner

Irony: I’m a business planner, and I have been for 30 years now; but the biggest decisions of my real life have been remarkably unplanned.

I could rewrite my own history backwards to make it all seem like it had been planned, but it wasn’t. Going from hippy to business planner to entrepreneur, I tripped over the most important right decisions, accidentally. It was a lot like a shiny metal ball bouncing around in a pinball machine, hitting obstacles and changing directions. Sometimes I made the wrong decisions and got the right results. Go figure.

GTibbetts/Shutterstock

For example, in college I studied what interested me: Literature. I wasn’t making a career choice, I was taking the path of least resistance. It was an easy step from Literature to Journalism, and — after 10 years with UPI and McGraw-Hill and others — from there to the MBA. And in 30-some years of business I keep meeting people whose careers seem to reconfirm the basic wisdom of studying what interests you. These are people who followed that path of interest and found, later, that it led to the right place.

All of which could end up as dangerously bad advice, I suppose: if taking the downhill path leads only downhill. Sometimes you have to buckle down and work; but at least, if you’re doing something that interests you, the work feels better. That was certainly my case. I got my first job in journalism in Mexico City, by mail plus a plane trip from Oregon, because I was happy to work cheap and they guessed that since my wife is Mexican I probably spoke Spanish (which wasn’t true until a few months later). There was no planning there; it was a job, in 1971, when jobs were scarce (as they are now). It seemed to prove the wisdom of taking that pinball-like change of direction.

The next time I changed direction it was for the money. I switched to business writing from regular wire-service news journalism after three years of it because my wife and I had two kids by then and with kids, money became an issue. Before that, neither one of us cared that much. Journalism had enjoyed an aura of save the world for a while, but that gets old. That change doubled my income (from very little to a little bit more). I waded slowly and fearfully into business writing with about as much enthusiasm as an ophidiophobe (fear of snakes) wading into a jungle swamp. At first, it was just a sellout; but then it got interesting. I took business classes at night school. I really wanted to know what was going on underneath the press releases, in the numbers, where the truth hides.

So it took me 10 years to get from undergrad studies to business school, but that wasn’t a bad thing. By the time I got there I was — notice the theme here — once again interested in what I was supposed to be studying. I’d had enough of business journalism to want to actually know what I had been writing about (novel idea) and that made business school fascinating. And my years as journalist helped me get through business school while working full-time in consulting. I could write fast, and that’s a good thing in school.

I made some very bad decisions that created very good outcomes. In some circles, we call that luck. Later I quit a good job to go on my own writing computer books, but with the help of my wife and my favorite former client, that became business plan consulting. And that — again with the help of my wife and some clients — became business plan software. It seemed like a natural progression. Just as it was critical to write for readers in Journalism, it was even more critical to write for users in software. And all of this changing directions meant that it wasn’t until 1994, 20 years after switching to business writing, 11 years after leaving that good job, that Business Plan Pro was first released.

And, while we’re on the general subject of unanalyzed decisions with good outcomes, doing what you want, in 1969 I asked a girl to marry me after knowing her about two weeks. Next January we’ll have a 40th anniversary. (And we both agree we were lucky. Don’t try this at home. Wait longer.) And at every key moment from literature to journalism to business to entrepreneurship, it was always two of us, never just me. When things were really dicey — like when we realized we had three mortgages and $65K credit card debt in developing Palo Alto Software — it was never “you idiot, what have you done,” but rather “we’ll take the risk together, and if we fail, we’ll fail together.” Knowing that you’re not going to lose a marriage over it makes it a lot easier to change directions.


http://timberry.bplans.com/2009/09/confessions-of-a-hypocritical-business-planner.html